Climbing Mortality Models II [final workshop of CARONTE]

August 27 – 29, 2025 [Grand Hotel Misurina. Misurina, BL, Italy]

This workshop is co-organized by Bocconi University [CUP: J53D23009400001] and the University of Padova [CUP: C53D23004870001] within the PRIN project CARONTE, and aims at creating the bases for a fruitful collaboration among statisticians and demographers in terms of future research directions on mortality modeling and forecasting, with a focus on causes-of-death. See Climbing Mortality Models for information on the first edition.

Program of the workshop

: :

EVENT	TIME	DETAILS
August 27, 2025
	[2.30 pm – 3.30 pm]	Registration
	[3.30 pm – 4.00 pm]	Opening
Plenary Talk (Chair: Marco Stefanucci)	[4.00 pm – 5.00 pm]	Title: Cause-specific mortality forecasting. A constrained penalized regression model Giancarlo Camarda. Institut National D'études Démographiques
	[5.00 pm – 5.30 pm]	Coffee Break
Session 1 (Chair: Mariangela Guidolin)	[5.30 pm – 7.30 pm]	Chiara Chiavenna. Title: Bayesian structure learning of psychological antecedents of vaccine hesitancy Cristian Castiglione. Title: Dependent stochastic block models for age-indexed sequences of directed causes-of-death networks Emanuele Aliverti. Title: Bayesian local clustering of age-period mortality surfaces across multiple countries Stefano Mazzuco. Title: The role of causes of death in shaping dispersion around the mode
	[7.30 pm – 8.30 pm]	Free time
	[8.30 pm – 9.30 pm]	Dinner time
August 28, 2025
EVENT	TIME	DETAILS
Plenary talk (Chair: Daniele Durante)	[9.00 am – 10.00 am]	Title: Recent advances in mixtures of finite mixture models Sylvia Frühwirth-Schnatter. WU Vienna University of Economics and Business
	[10.00 am – 10.30 am]	Coffee Break
Session 2 (Chair: Emanuele Aliverti)	[10.30 am – 12.30 am]	Brendan Murphy. Title: Summarising mortality data with time-dependent beta latent variable models Gregor Zens. Title: Bayesian factor analysis for demographic counts Gaia Bertarelli. Title: Mapping health outcomes at multiple unplanned geographical scales in Italy using PASSI data Tim Riffe. Title: An indirect method to infer multistate transitions
	[12.30 am – 2.00 pm]	Lunch time
Session 3 (Chair: Raffaella Piccarreta)	[2.00 pm – 4.00 pm]	Virginia Zarulli. Title: Deriving and comparing healthy longevity distributions by gender and health prevalence measures Amerigo Novaro and Davide Benussi. Title: Evolution of sub-national longevity and causes of death composition using data on Italian provinces Giovanni Romanò. Title: Bayesian temporal clustering of age-specific leading causes of death sequences across all countries Stefano Mazzuco. Title: Reflections on alternatives approaches in causes of death data: cause-specific hazard rates or compositions by cause?
	[4.00 pm – 4.30 pm]	Coffee Break
Plenary talk (Chair: Mariangela Guidolin)	[4.30 pm – 5.30 pm]	Title: Towards preparedness for excess mortality: Insights from weekly mortality modelling Jakub Bijak. University of Southampton
Session 4 (Chair: Daniele Durante)	[5.30 pm – 7.00 pm]	Omiros Papaspiliopoulos. Title: Hierarchical item response theory Beatrice Franzolini Title: Random partitions modelling of life-events Matteo Gasparin. Title: Uncertainty quantification for mortality data
	[7.00 pm – 8.30 pm]	Free time
	[8.30 pm – 9.30 pm]	Dinner time
August 29, 2025
EVENT	TIME	DETAILS
Plenary talk (Chair: Stefano Mazzuco)	[9.00 am – 10.00 am]	Title: Estimating historical mortality rates using crowd-sourced online genealogies Monica Alexander. University of Toronto
	[10.00 am – 10.30 am]	Coffee Break
Session 5 (Chair: Bruno Scarpa)	[10.30 am – 12.00 am]	Sergi Trias-Llimós. Title: Inequalities in the burden of major conditions on mortality: Evidence from Catalonia Josè Manuel Aburto. Title: Understanding lifespan inequality and ageing as functions of survival Marco Stefanucci. Title: Functional regression of mortality compositions: an application to Italian provinces
	[12.00 am – 12.15 am]	Closing
	[12.15 am – 13.30 pm]	Lunch time

"Causes of deAth dependence stRuctures and the cOmpositioNal effecT on ovErall mortality"

CARONTE, [2023–2025] is a PRIN–MUR 2022 Grant [Prot. 2022KBTEBN] funded by the European Union — Next Generation EU, Mission 4. The project aims at bridging demography and recent advancements in functional data analysis, compositional data analysis, graphical models and discrete choice models, to develop a unique statistical modeling framework which can fully learn the complex systems of graphical dependencies underlying causes of death and unveil their combined effects on overall mortality.

The three Universities that are part of the project are Bocconi University (PI: Daniele Durante, CUP: J53D23009400001), University of Padova (co–PI: Stefano Mazzuco, CUP: C53D23004870001) and University of Rome Tor Vergata (co–PI: Marco Stefanucci, CUP: E53D23010290001).